Trying to evaluate just what the San Diego Chargers need with the offseason is a difficult task.  Do you evaluate them as a 13-3 juggernaut that tripped itself up in a less than ideal situation?  A few limited tweaks would then be all that is necessary.

Or do you look to the team as a bit of an overachiever?  A 10 win team that found a way to win a few extra times?  This approach obviously warrants a much deeper consideration, and a few broader changes.

The answer lies somewhere in between.  Both looks share the common thread of a change to the running game.  That one is the team’s first priority with Tomlinson’s slim chance of a return growing even slimmer.

Past that, it becomes a difficult order of priority.  The team has many adequate but unspectacular players.  As a unit they came together well while individually they appeared to be a rather modest matchup.

Not everything can be addressed in one offseason.  Knowing the history of GM A.J. Smith, as well as the rise of restricted free agents, one has to approach change with the concept that only one or two names would be added via trade or free agency. 

The philosophy may not be ideal, but it is unlikely to change as long as Smith is at the helm, therefore any thought given to the team's personnel must be looked at with an A.J. Smith filter, the results doesn't necessarily always reflect my approach, but rather what I think is a somewhat sensible set of ideas based on Smith's.

So where to start?  The running game was addressed more deeply in two prior pieces, so if it seems skimmed a bit here, that is why.

The position’s best recourse would be in the second round.  At least half of the "professional" mock drafts have the team taking Jonathan Dwyer in the first round.  As a pass-first team, it would appear much more useful to preserve that pick for another position.

At least one of two from among names like Ryan Matthews, Toby Gerhart or Anthony Dixon should be available.  They, like Dwyer, are power backs with good size that won’t necessarily fall with first contact.  That is what San Diego needs most out of its running game and should be able to land without using its first rounder.

That addressed where else do the Charger’s need to look to shore up?  Almost every position barring QB could stand to be upgraded in some manner, so let’s treat it as a bit of a triage and see just what and where the focus should go on a positional basis.

Backfield : Already addressed above, the only side note is that a bump in Tolbert’s reps and a drop in Hester’s would be a good adjunct to a new running back.  He is especially useful as an augment to some of the bigger backs less accustomed to catching the ball, as Tolbert pretty good hands out of the backfield.

Verdict: Adress Rounds 2-3 high priority

Offensive Line: In front of that running game is the line.  They are mostly solid with one glaring need, right tackle.  When Hardwick is healthy the team has both good depth and solid starters.  Along the right side, however, Clary is overmatched. 

Taking the triage approach this would be a high-focus area.  If a quality first round talent is still available with 27 names taken off the board, the team should put serious thought into the position.  If they fail to land a first-round tackle, taking one within the top three rounds is a must.

(The second piece on the running game goes deeper into the personnel notions.)

Verdict: Address Rounds 1-3 high priority

Wide Receiver : The final piece of the offense to look at.  Despite legal difficulties, Vincent Jackson has proved a useful and dynamic force on the team.  His resigning supersedes just about any other Chargers free agent (with Marcus McNeill treading similar ground). 

After Jackson wide receiver rates low on the needs list.  Having Antonio Gates and doing a good job throwing to the backfield (especially assuming Sproles is retained), the team doesn’t need five wideouts to net playing time. 

That said, they have essentially no depth here.  Osgood is regarded as special teams only and Buster Davis is likely gone.  Byrd’s situation is too difficult to gauge, so he must be approached as if he will not be playing.

With all of that the team could stand to pursue a wideout—a mid-round choice like Eric Decker, Blair White, Shay Hodge.  A cheaper free agent is not out of the question, and the team can afford to wait for one to filter through the cracks (thus being even more affordable). 

All they really need out of either option is a more traditional guy that can complement Naanee’s more unique skillset at the No. 3 spot as well as give them some depth in case of injury.  A speedy solid slot guy would be a great complement to Jackson/Floyd, but just isn’t high enough on the priority list to pursue that heavily.

Verdict: Round 4-6 mild-low priority.

Tight End : Antonio Gates is a perennial pro bowler who will never be a true head-cracker but has improved somewhat when called upon to block.  Brandon Manumaleuna is a monster that can occasionally pick up a nice catch and is a better run blocker than most of the O-line. 

The one thing the team might be able to use at tight end is a second head banger with Manumaleuna’s heft.  Kris Wilson as the third TE is an H-back type who can catch a little, block a bit, and go unnoticed.  He’s adequate but disposable.  With a limited TE crop, bring in an undrafted rookie to compete with him nothing more.

Perhaps Penn State’s Mickey Shuler or Virginia Tech’s Grant Boone

Verdict: Round 7-RFA very low priority

Defense

A bit more difficult to study, the injuries hampering the defense make it a much more difficult unit to grade than the offense.  You know what you get when Hardwick comes back healthy, but how much of 2009’s Shawne Merriman was nagging injury and how much reflected simply a decline?  How will Jamal Williams’ 35-year-old body hold up?  His triceps injury isn’t something that should be ongoing, but his knees holding up were a concern last offseason.

The way this article is approaching is as if:

A. Merriman is slightly improved from 2009’s slowed performance but decidedly not returning to his mid-upper teen sack status

B. Jamal Williams will mostly hold up for the year, missing 2-3 games, with a minor dropoff from his pro-bowl form but need an heir apparent for 2011.

That said...

Defensive Tackle : The focal point is obviously nosetackle.  Williams will be back after missing 16½ of the team’s 17 games last year.  They have Ryon Bingham and Vaughn Martin behind him.  Bingham has the experience but is a 4-3 DT and doesn’t have the bulk to be more than a backup here.  Martin has the size but is extremely raw.  Most of the other names at DT will probably be gone as they were signed most to augment injuries to Bingham and Williams. 

Does the team have faith in Martin’s development or not?  That is the question.  Year One seems reminiscent of a big-strong DE draft pick now playing in Dallas.  Capable, but won’t be an asset.  Nosetackle is too important to just be that.

Prying one of the few free agents is a near impossibility.  They are too few and valuable, Wilfork, Hampton, and Franklin would all likely be franchised or given massive contracts by their current teams.  The one possibility would be Ryan Pickett, as the Packers already have a top draft pick with a year of experience waiting behind him. 

Further complicating the issue is a thin NT draft.  In the unlikely scenario Dan Williams drops, San Diego should snatch him up.  After him there’s the rapidly falling Terrence Cody and little else before later rounds. 

One possibility could be attempting to move up slightly from the team’s third round pick to grab Cam Thomas or Terrell Troup.  The main issue is their being taken ahead of value because of the draft’s thinner NT stock. 

Given that the team has a prospect already and Jamal Williams isn’t gone yet, if they can’t find someone that looks like a genuine starter by then, advice would lean towards waiting for the next draft rather than stockpiling Martin-type projects.

Verdict—Rounds 1-3 moderate/high priority

Defensive End: The Castillo/Cesaire/Boone rotation was adequate for the team.  None were standouts, and the capacity to eat lineman and take up space (the role of the three lineman in a 3-4) was hampered by a host of undersized subs at the nose.  If the team can land a big nosetackle than Bingham is sized such that he can play end in the 3-4 as well, helping on depth. 

Pursuing a free agent here would seem something of a waste given the available players on the market, most of whom would become OLB’s in a 3-4 anyway.  In the draft an augment might not be bad if the right pick is around at the right time. 

In the draft should they not find a nosetackle, than 1-2 likely goes Oline, RB.  This opens up round three for DE, if Corey Wootton or Mike Neal is available.  More likely would be going after a later mid-rounder to preserve 1-3 for higher priorities.

Arthur Jones, C.J. Wilson, Corey Peters, or Jeffery Fitzgerald would all be possibilities to be had around where the team might start looking. 

Verdict—Rounds 4-6 mild priority

Outside Linebacker: The assumption seems to be that Shawne Merriman will be retained.  The merit (or lack thereof) of the decision will not be debated as it will most likely happen and therefore planning should be treated as such. 

That said, what was a strength of the team not that long ago was something of a disappointment.  Shaun Phillips’ smaller step back in production can be explained by the situation around him; Merriman’s however could not. 

A former 17 sack producer Merriman netted four sacks on the year.  Some of that can be attributed to being slowed by injury, and some from the additional attention given when a nosetackle is not engaging multiple blockers.

Larry English showed some athleticism when playing, but looked very much the athletic second rounder he was projected as, not mid-first rounder Smith pegged him with.  He may not be the big hitter Merriman can be capable of but is better at things like batting passes and catching players from behind with his better speed.

If Merriman is retained, the team will likely stand pat or get a late-round depth guy.  A potential option has floated with the team not signing Merriman and bringing in Joey Porter, whose asking price might not be too expensive given disgruntled Dolphin’s situation (and San Diego being listed as one of three teams he expressed a desire to pay for). 

The downside is age.  Porter is seven years older than Merriman and would likely be a 2-4 year option rather than a career player.  The upside would be better athletic versatility (not just a bullrusher)—he produced nine sacks in 2009 despite losing snaps because of coaching disfavor.

With the cost of both Merriman and Porter and Phillips being set on the other side and English holding a first rounder’s contract, it would make no fiscal sense to have both, however, and the team is likely in an either-or scenario that Smith’s history indicates Merriman being the choice.

For the sake of looking at the draft we will go with the retaining Merriman scenario.  That means a later draft pick for some depth behind English, but investing higher picks at other needs. 

In the draft a name like George Selvie or Jason Worilds could be solid options, players whose last season dropped their stock some, thus taking someone with potential second or third round talent and dropping then into the fourth or fifth round, or taking a small school standout like Arthur Moats or Adrian Tracy around the sixth round.

Verdict with Merriman—Rounds 4-6 mild priority

Without—Rounds 2-4 moderate-high priority

Inside Linebacker: This is the first of the positions where priority is the biggest factor in the equation.  In an ideal world Stephen Cooper is let go and Tim Dobbins slipped a spot on the depth chart while a hard-nosed guy that can step into coverage gets added.

Instead the Dobbins/Cooper/Siler/Burnett rotation is likely retained in full as an adequate quartet that can do enough for the team to succeed given improvement from the rest of the front seven. Given the dearth of big ticket ILB’s this draft.

The ascent up the depth chart for Siler especially helps the case.  Siler was a special teamer and backup when the year began, and earned his way into the rotation when injuries gave him a chance to shine.  Burnett was brought in to be the "passing down" guy, but emerged as a better tackler than coverage guy. 

Even if Cooper is let go or Dobbins leaves via free agency, the team may stay relatively still because they hold Burnett and Siler.  Should they draft some insurance, it would likely come in the very late rounds such as Joe Pawelek, Boris Lee, or Reed Williams.

Verdict—Rounds 6-7 mild-low priority

Cornerback: Similar to inside linebacker, not much movement is expected here as other avenues are addressed.  Traditionally a strong front seven with a weaker secondary outperforms a strong secondary with a weak front seven.  That philosophy paired with needs at right tackle and running back mean adequate is acceptable.

At the cornerback position Quentin Jammer continues unheralded work as a non-turnover threat but good tackler and solid cover guy.  Cromartie, with his suspect tackling and better hands, earns a pass because of the team’s situation.  Behind them Antoine Cason showed some early season flashes, then plunged down the depth chart.

Because cornerback is probably the hardest defensive position to gauge instant results from, an early pick would be a poor gamble at this stage.  Free agency is equally unattractive.  Sure there’s a few Dre Bly’s out there but is that an upgrade or a 33-year-old Cromartie?

In the draft a mid-round pick would not surprise.  The highest potential I could see would be a third round selection like Kareem Jackson or Patrick Robinson.  More likely would be something around a fifth rounder just to push Cason (and maybe Cromartie) such as Amari Spievey, Rafael Priest, or Patrick Stoudamire

Verdict—Rounds 5-6 moderate-mild

Safety: Another position with strong similarities to ILB.  The unit is deep, though not necessarily the strongest in the world.  Kevin Ellison stepped in admirably for complete bust Clinton Hart, and the team looked much more stable on defense with the move.  He doesn’t really have the physical tools to make vast strides, however, and the improvement was from weakest link to adequate, not great.

On the other side, Eric Weddle is similar.  He has solid positioning that pairs well with decent speed.  He is however a bit small and needs to improve the angles he takes since he will never be a light’s out hitter.  He also is not going to be a threat to put up big INT totals.

Steve Gregory makes a good compliment at the chief backup.  He earned the team’s nickel role and is versatile enough to be plugged into multiple DB slots.  Paul Oliver rounds out the rotation as a solid fourth option who, despite his slightly bigger 210 pound frame, is better at covering ground than making tackles.

With no particular contract concerns at the position and good depth the team is likely to stay put for other focal efforts, giving younger players like Ellison and CJ Spillman a year or two to show possible development.

If a guy like T.J. Ward or Myron Rolle drops to the seventh because of non on-field concerns, they could get snagged.  It would be just as likely to see no change

Verdict—Round 7 or UFA

So there you have it.  Very few non-draft options were given primarily to make an attempt at viewing the process via the A.J. Smith mindset.  The collective bargain uncertainty taking nearly all viable younger free agents to restricted status (and therefore driving up the prices on the few unrestricted options ), as well as the number of free agents the team will attempt to re-sign means that the Chargers should expect very little activity on that front.

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Tomlinson expects Bolts to let him go
By Kevin Acee, Staff Writer San Diego Union-Tribune

LaDainian Tomlinson spent a couple of weeks following the abrupt conclusion of the Chargers season reflecting, in prayer and meditation.

He has reached the stage of acceptance.

After a month of proclaiming he did not know what his future would be, the certain Hall of Famer said Thursday he knows he has played his last game as a Charger.

“I’m not coming back,” Tomlinson said. “I don’t believe I’ll be back in San Diego. I’ve accepted it.”

Tomlinson, who has two years remaining on his contract, said neither he nor his agent has spoken with the Chargers since the season ended. He has simply read the writing on the wall.

“I just felt like it was over,” Tomlinson said.

All that’s left now is for the breakup to become official, which likely won’t happen for a few weeks.

Tomlinson is due a $2 million roster bonus March 5 and would be paid $5 million in total salary in 2010. As part of the renegotiated contract he signed last March, he is guaranteed $1 million by the Chargers for next season.

Tomlinson said whenever the Chargers do let him go he will search for another team and will “definitely” play next season. The man whose 12,490 career rushing yards rank eighth in NFL history and whose 153 touchdowns rank third believes he can still be a productive rusher.

A trade is highly unlikely for two reasons.

First, any team interested in him would almost certainly not want to pay $5 million for a running back who will be 31 in June and who averaged 3.3 yards per carry in 2009. Also, sources said last year when the sides were reworking Tomlinson’s deal that the Chargers would not trade him out of respect. That is probably still the sentiment within the organization.

Reached out of town Thursday, General Manager A.J. Smith wouldn’t comment directly about Tomlinson’s situation.

“First of all, we haven’t even met on San Diego Chargers players for 2010,” Smith said. “We tentatively will make some decisions on the 4th or 5th of March, unless we have a directive from the league that tells us they’re pushing the date back.”

The 2010 league year begins at 12:01 a.m. EST March 5. With looming labor unrest, there is a possibility that date could be pushed back, but many league sources have said they consider such a move unlikely.

During Thursday’s phone interview with The San Diego Union-Tribune, Tomlinson spoke of his future and his past, pausing several times.

“It’s a mixed feeling,” he said. “It’s mixed emotions. I’ve spent nine years of my life here, pretty much my youth. I gave the organization everything I have. I enjoyed the community.

“But there is a part I won’t miss. The football part is fun. But the business part sucks. I won’t miss that.”

Tomlinson said he doesn’t know when the Chargers will release him. He said his agent might call the team to expedite the process.

Tomlinson also intimated why it’s time to move on, saying he felt “disconnected” from his teammates much of this past season.

“I felt like I wasn’t as close for whatever reason to what was going on,” he said.

Tomlinson held out as an example the fact that he did not know until later that receiver Vincent Jackson was pulled over by police a few hours before the Chargers’ Jan. 17 playoff loss to the New York Jets and cited for driving with a suspended license.

“I had no idea,” Tomlinson said. “I’m supposed to be a captain on the team. I could have gone over and said, ‘Bro, are you OK? You need to get it under control, get your head right for the game.’ ”

Tomlinson said he would have been told in the past if such a thing had happened.

Tomlinson also elaborated Thursday on a radio interview he gave earlier this week in which he questioned the team’s mentality, saying players were about themselves and not always focused on the whole. He did not back off and even stated some things stronger than he had previously.

He said there is a direct correlation between things that happen off the field — “nightclubs, stuff at people’s house having parties, stuff that gets out and is a distraction” — and the Chargers’ performance on the field.

Tomlinson said there are “great character guys” on the team but that a lack of focus by certain players contributed to the loss to the Jets, a game in which the Chargers committed numerous costly and uncharacteristic penalties.

“It makes a difference on how you react,” Tomlinson said. “Their focus was somewhere other than where it needed to be — on the field. We talked over and over about that. We had extra sessions on that as players. And then we go out and that stuff happens. So what else could it be?”

He also said there are players overly concerned about their contracts. A number of Chargers have been rewarded in past years with multiyear deals, but some of the team’s stars are without that security.

“That was a big focus,” Tomlinson said. “A lot of guys got the contracts. Guys see that other guys got paid and taken care of and they’re like, ‘Why ain’t nobody talking to me?’ It became a problem.”

Tomlinson said all season that he was happy, even in a diminished role. He explained Thursday why he kept his feelings inside until recently.

“There are certain things you can’t lash out about, especially when you’re winning,” he said.

The Chargers won 11 straight games to finish the regular season 13-3. Tomlinson reiterated his shock at the loss to the Jets but said he was concerned the underlying issue of focus would manifest at some point.

“I didn’t think it would show itself until we went up against a team like the Colts,” he said, referring to the AFC champions who are playing in Sunday’s Super Bowl.

Still, he believes the Chargers are close to being a championship team.

“It’s just going to take a little more effort by guys,” he said. “I don’t think we realize how focused and how determined we’ve got to be if we want to get to the Super Bowl. … I don’t know what it is — growing up, dedication.”

Knowing he is not going to be in San Diego, he said he is speaking out for the good of the team.

“Hopefully,” Tomlinson said, “I leave some wisdom to the leaders that are left behind.”

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