Trying to evaluate just what
the San Diego Chargers need with the offseason is a difficult
task. Do you evaluate them as a 13-3 juggernaut that tripped
itself up in a less than ideal situation? A few limited tweaks
would then be all that is necessary.
Or do you
look to the team as a bit of an overachiever? A 10 win team
that found a way to win a few extra times? This approach
obviously warrants a much deeper consideration, and a few
broader changes.
The answer
lies somewhere in between. Both looks share the common thread
of a change to the running game. That one is the team’s first
priority with Tomlinson’s slim chance of a return growing even
slimmer.
Past that,
it becomes a difficult order of priority. The team has many
adequate but unspectacular players. As a unit they came
together well while individually they appeared to be a rather
modest matchup.
Not
everything can be addressed in one offseason. Knowing the
history of GM A.J. Smith, as well as the rise of restricted free
agents, one has to approach change with the concept that only
one or two names would be added via trade or free agency.
The
philosophy may not be ideal, but it is unlikely to change as
long as Smith is at the helm, therefore any thought given to the
team's personnel must be looked at with an A.J. Smith filter,
the results doesn't necessarily always reflect my approach, but
rather what I think is a somewhat sensible set of ideas based on
Smith's.
So where to
start? The running game was addressed more deeply in two prior
pieces, so if it seems skimmed a bit here, that is why.
The
position’s best recourse would be in the second round. At least
half of the "professional" mock drafts have the team taking
Jonathan Dwyer in the first round. As a pass-first team, it
would appear much more useful to preserve that pick for another
position.
At least one
of two from among names like Ryan Matthews, Toby Gerhart or
Anthony Dixon should be available. They, like Dwyer, are power
backs with good size that won’t necessarily fall with first
contact. That is what San Diego needs most out of its running
game and should be able to land without using its first rounder.
That
addressed where else do the Charger’s need to look to shore up?
Almost every position barring QB could stand to be upgraded in
some manner, so let’s treat it as a bit of a triage and see just
what and where the focus should go on a positional basis.
Backfield : Already addressed
above, the only side note is that a bump in Tolbert’s reps and a
drop in Hester’s would be a good adjunct to a new running back.
He is especially useful as an augment to some of the bigger
backs less accustomed to catching the ball, as Tolbert pretty
good hands out of the backfield.
Verdict:
Adress Rounds 2-3 high priority
Offensive Line: In front of
that running game is the line. They are mostly solid with one
glaring need, right tackle. When Hardwick is healthy the team
has both good depth and solid starters. Along the right side,
however, Clary is overmatched.
Taking the
triage approach this would be a high-focus area. If a quality
first round talent is still available with 27 names taken off
the board, the team should put serious thought into the
position. If they fail to land a first-round tackle, taking one
within the top three rounds is a must.
(The second
piece on the running game goes deeper into the personnel
notions.)
Verdict:
Address Rounds 1-3 high priority
Wide
Receiver : The final piece of
the offense to look at. Despite legal difficulties, Vincent
Jackson has proved a useful and dynamic force on the team. His
resigning supersedes just about any other Chargers free agent
(with Marcus McNeill treading similar ground).
After
Jackson wide receiver rates low on the needs list. Having
Antonio Gates and doing a good job throwing to the backfield
(especially assuming Sproles is retained), the team doesn’t need
five wideouts to net playing time.
That said,
they have essentially no depth here. Osgood is regarded as
special teams only and Buster Davis is likely gone. Byrd’s
situation is too difficult to gauge, so he must be approached as
if he will not be playing.
With all of
that the team could stand to pursue a wideout—a mid-round choice
like Eric Decker, Blair White, Shay Hodge. A cheaper free agent
is not out of the question, and the team can afford to wait for
one to filter through the cracks (thus being even more
affordable).
All they
really need out of either option is a more traditional guy that
can complement Naanee’s more unique skillset at the No. 3 spot
as well as give them some depth in case of injury. A speedy
solid slot guy would be a great complement to Jackson/Floyd, but
just isn’t high enough on the priority list to pursue that
heavily.
Verdict:
Round 4-6 mild-low priority.
Tight
End : Antonio Gates is a
perennial pro bowler who will never be a true head-cracker but
has improved somewhat when called upon to block. Brandon
Manumaleuna is a monster that can occasionally pick up a nice
catch and is a better run blocker than most of the O-line.
The one
thing the team might be able to use at tight end is a second
head banger with Manumaleuna’s heft. Kris Wilson as the third
TE is an H-back type who can catch a little, block a bit, and go
unnoticed. He’s adequate but disposable. With a limited TE
crop, bring in an undrafted rookie to compete with him nothing
more.
Perhaps Penn
State’s Mickey Shuler or Virginia Tech’s Grant Boone
Verdict:
Round 7-RFA very low priority
Defense
A bit more
difficult to study, the injuries hampering the defense make it a
much more difficult unit to grade than the offense. You know
what you get when Hardwick comes back healthy, but how much of
2009’s Shawne Merriman was nagging injury and how much reflected
simply a decline? How will Jamal Williams’ 35-year-old body
hold up? His triceps injury isn’t something that should be
ongoing, but his knees holding up were a concern last offseason.
The way this
article is approaching is as if:
A. Merriman
is slightly improved from 2009’s slowed performance but
decidedly not returning to his mid-upper teen sack status
B. Jamal
Williams will mostly hold up for the year, missing 2-3 games,
with a minor dropoff from his pro-bowl form but need an heir
apparent for 2011.
That said...
Defensive Tackle : The focal
point is obviously nosetackle. Williams will be back after
missing 16½ of the team’s 17 games last year. They have Ryon
Bingham and Vaughn Martin behind him. Bingham has the
experience but is a 4-3 DT and doesn’t have the bulk to be more
than a backup here. Martin has the size but is extremely raw.
Most of the other names at DT will probably be gone as they were
signed most to augment injuries to Bingham and Williams.
Does the
team have faith in Martin’s development or not? That is the
question. Year One seems reminiscent of a big-strong DE draft
pick now playing in Dallas. Capable, but won’t be an asset.
Nosetackle is too important to just be that.
Prying one
of the few free agents is a near impossibility. They are too
few and valuable, Wilfork, Hampton, and Franklin would all
likely be franchised or given massive contracts by their current
teams. The one possibility would be Ryan Pickett, as the
Packers already have a top draft pick with a year of experience
waiting behind him.
Further
complicating the issue is a thin NT draft. In the unlikely
scenario Dan Williams drops, San Diego should snatch him up.
After him there’s the rapidly falling Terrence Cody and little
else before later rounds.
One
possibility could be attempting to move up slightly from the
team’s third round pick to grab Cam Thomas or Terrell Troup.
The main issue is their being taken ahead of value because of
the draft’s thinner NT stock.
Given that
the team has a prospect already and Jamal Williams isn’t gone
yet, if they can’t find someone that looks like a genuine
starter by then, advice would lean towards waiting for the next
draft rather than stockpiling Martin-type projects.
Verdict—Rounds 1-3 moderate/high priority
Defensive End: The Castillo/Cesaire/Boone
rotation was adequate for the team. None were standouts, and
the capacity to eat lineman and take up space (the role of the
three lineman in a 3-4) was hampered by a host of undersized
subs at the nose. If the team can land a big nosetackle than
Bingham is sized such that he can play end in the 3-4 as well,
helping on depth.
Pursuing a
free agent here would seem something of a waste given the
available players on the market, most of whom would become OLB’s
in a 3-4 anyway. In the draft an augment might not be bad if
the right pick is around at the right time.
In the draft
should they not find a nosetackle, than 1-2 likely goes Oline,
RB. This opens up round three for DE, if Corey Wootton or Mike
Neal is available. More likely would be going after a later
mid-rounder to preserve 1-3 for higher priorities.
Arthur
Jones, C.J. Wilson, Corey Peters, or Jeffery Fitzgerald would
all be possibilities to be had around where the team might start
looking.
Verdict—Rounds 4-6 mild priority
Outside
Linebacker: The assumption
seems to be that Shawne Merriman will be retained. The merit
(or lack thereof) of the decision will not be debated as it will
most likely happen and therefore planning should be treated as
such.
That said,
what was a strength of the team not that long ago was something
of a disappointment. Shaun Phillips’ smaller step back in
production can be explained by the situation around him;
Merriman’s however could not.
A former 17
sack producer Merriman netted four sacks on the year. Some of
that can be attributed to being slowed by injury, and some from
the additional attention given when a nosetackle is not engaging
multiple blockers.
Larry
English showed some athleticism when playing, but looked very
much the athletic second rounder he was projected as, not
mid-first rounder Smith pegged him with. He may not be the big
hitter Merriman can be capable of but is better at things like
batting passes and catching players from behind with his better
speed.
If Merriman
is retained, the team will likely stand pat or get a late-round
depth guy. A potential option has floated with the team not
signing Merriman and bringing in Joey Porter, whose asking price
might not be too expensive given disgruntled Dolphin’s situation
(and San Diego being listed as one of three teams he expressed a
desire to pay for).
The downside
is age. Porter is seven years older than Merriman and would
likely be a 2-4 year option rather than a career player. The
upside would be better athletic versatility (not just a
bullrusher)—he produced nine sacks in 2009 despite losing snaps
because of coaching disfavor.
With the
cost of both Merriman and Porter and Phillips being set on the
other side and English holding a first rounder’s contract, it
would make no fiscal sense to have both, however, and the team
is likely in an either-or scenario that Smith’s history
indicates Merriman being the choice.
For the sake
of looking at the draft we will go with the retaining Merriman
scenario. That means a later draft pick for some depth behind
English, but investing higher picks at other needs.
In the draft
a name like George Selvie or Jason Worilds could be solid
options, players whose last season dropped their stock some,
thus taking someone with potential second or third round talent
and dropping then into the fourth or fifth round, or taking a
small school standout like Arthur Moats or Adrian Tracy around
the sixth round.
Verdict with
Merriman—Rounds 4-6 mild priority
Without—Rounds 2-4 moderate-high priority
Inside
Linebacker: This is the first
of the positions where priority is the biggest factor in the
equation. In an ideal world Stephen Cooper is let go and Tim
Dobbins slipped a spot on the depth chart while a hard-nosed guy
that can step into coverage gets added.
Instead the
Dobbins/Cooper/Siler/Burnett rotation is likely retained in full
as an adequate quartet that can do enough for the team to
succeed given improvement from the rest of the front seven.
Given the dearth of big ticket ILB’s this draft.
The ascent
up the depth chart for Siler especially helps the case. Siler
was a special teamer and backup when the year began, and earned
his way into the rotation when injuries gave him a chance to
shine. Burnett was brought in to be the "passing down" guy, but
emerged as a better tackler than coverage guy.
Even if
Cooper is let go or Dobbins leaves via free agency, the team may
stay relatively still because they hold Burnett and Siler.
Should they draft some insurance, it would likely come in the
very late rounds such as Joe Pawelek, Boris Lee, or Reed
Williams.
Verdict—Rounds 6-7 mild-low priority
Cornerback: Similar to inside
linebacker, not much movement is expected here as other avenues
are addressed. Traditionally a strong front seven with a weaker
secondary outperforms a strong secondary with a weak front
seven. That philosophy paired with needs at right tackle and
running back mean adequate is acceptable.
At the
cornerback position Quentin Jammer continues unheralded work as
a non-turnover threat but good tackler and solid cover guy.
Cromartie, with his suspect tackling and better hands, earns a
pass because of the team’s situation. Behind them Antoine Cason
showed some early season flashes, then plunged down the depth
chart.
Because
cornerback is probably the hardest defensive position to gauge
instant results from, an early pick would be a poor gamble at
this stage. Free agency is equally unattractive. Sure there’s
a few Dre Bly’s out there but is that an upgrade or a
33-year-old Cromartie?
In the draft
a mid-round pick would not surprise. The highest potential I
could see would be a third round selection like Kareem Jackson
or Patrick Robinson. More likely would be something around a
fifth rounder just to push Cason (and maybe Cromartie) such as
Amari Spievey, Rafael Priest, or Patrick Stoudamire
Verdict—Rounds 5-6 moderate-mild
Safety:
Another position with strong
similarities to ILB. The unit is deep, though not necessarily
the strongest in the world. Kevin Ellison stepped in admirably
for complete bust Clinton Hart, and the team looked much more
stable on defense with the move. He doesn’t really have the
physical tools to make vast strides, however, and the
improvement was from weakest link to adequate, not great.
On the other
side, Eric Weddle is similar. He has solid positioning that
pairs well with decent speed. He is however a bit small and
needs to improve the angles he takes since he will never be a
light’s out hitter. He also is not going to be a threat to put
up big INT totals.
Steve
Gregory makes a good compliment at the chief backup. He earned
the team’s nickel role and is versatile enough to be plugged
into multiple DB slots. Paul Oliver rounds out the rotation as
a solid fourth option who, despite his slightly bigger 210 pound
frame, is better at covering ground than making tackles.
With no
particular contract concerns at the position and good depth the
team is likely to stay put for other focal efforts, giving
younger players like Ellison and CJ Spillman a year or two to
show possible development.
If a guy
like T.J. Ward or Myron Rolle drops to the seventh because of
non on-field concerns, they could get snagged. It would be just
as likely to see no change
Verdict—Round 7 or UFA
So there you
have it. Very few non-draft options were given primarily to
make an attempt at viewing the process via the A.J. Smith
mindset. The collective bargain uncertainty taking nearly all
viable younger free agents to restricted status (and therefore
driving up the prices on the few unrestricted options ), as well
as the number of free agents the team will attempt to re-sign
means that the Chargers should expect very little activity on
that front.
Tomlinson
expects Bolts to let him go
By Kevin Acee, Staff Writer San Diego
Union-Tribune
LaDainian Tomlinson spent a
couple of weeks following the abrupt conclusion of the Chargers
season reflecting, in prayer and meditation.
He has reached the stage of
acceptance.
After a month of proclaiming
he did not know what his future would be, the certain Hall of
Famer said Thursday he knows he has played his last game as a
Charger.
“I’m not coming back,”
Tomlinson said. “I don’t believe I’ll be back in San Diego. I’ve
accepted it.”
Tomlinson, who has two years
remaining on his contract, said neither he nor his agent has
spoken with the Chargers since the season ended. He has simply
read the writing on the wall.
“I just felt like it was
over,” Tomlinson said.
All that’s left now is for the
breakup to become official, which likely won’t happen for a few
weeks.
Tomlinson is due a $2 million
roster bonus March 5 and would be paid $5 million in total
salary in 2010. As part of the renegotiated contract he signed
last March, he is guaranteed $1 million by the Chargers for next
season.
Tomlinson said whenever the
Chargers do let him go he will search for another team and will
“definitely” play next season. The man whose 12,490 career
rushing yards rank eighth in NFL history and whose 153
touchdowns rank third believes he can still be a productive
rusher.
A trade is highly unlikely for
two reasons.
First, any team interested in
him would almost certainly not want to pay $5 million for a
running back who will be 31 in June and who averaged 3.3 yards
per carry in 2009. Also, sources said last year when the sides
were reworking Tomlinson’s deal that the Chargers would not
trade him out of respect. That is probably still the sentiment
within the organization.
Reached out of town Thursday,
General Manager A.J. Smith wouldn’t comment directly about
Tomlinson’s situation.
“First of all, we haven’t even
met on San Diego Chargers players for 2010,” Smith said. “We
tentatively will make some decisions on the 4th or 5th of March,
unless we have a directive from the league that tells us they’re
pushing the date back.”
The 2010 league year begins at
12:01 a.m. EST March 5. With looming labor unrest, there is a
possibility that date could be pushed back, but many league
sources have said they consider such a move unlikely.
During Thursday’s phone
interview with The San Diego Union-Tribune, Tomlinson spoke of
his future and his past, pausing several times.
“It’s a mixed feeling,” he
said. “It’s mixed emotions. I’ve spent nine years of my life
here, pretty much my youth. I gave the organization everything I
have. I enjoyed the community.
“But there is a part I won’t
miss. The football part is fun. But the business part sucks. I
won’t miss that.”
Tomlinson said he doesn’t know
when the Chargers will release him. He said his agent might call
the team to expedite the process.
Tomlinson also intimated why
it’s time to move on, saying he felt “disconnected” from his
teammates much of this past season.
“I felt like I wasn’t as close
for whatever reason to what was going on,” he said.
Tomlinson held out as an
example the fact that he did not know until later that receiver
Vincent Jackson was pulled over by police a few hours before
the Chargers’ Jan. 17 playoff loss to the
New York Jets and cited for driving with a suspended
license.
“I had no idea,” Tomlinson
said. “I’m supposed to be a captain on the team. I could have
gone over and said, ‘Bro, are you OK? You need to get it under
control, get your head right for the game.’ ”
Tomlinson said he would have
been told in the past if such a thing had happened.
Tomlinson also elaborated
Thursday on a radio interview he gave earlier this week in which
he questioned the team’s mentality, saying players were about
themselves and not always focused on the whole. He did not back
off and even stated some things stronger than he had previously.
He said there is a direct
correlation between things that happen off the field —
“nightclubs, stuff at people’s house having parties, stuff that
gets out and is a distraction” — and the Chargers’ performance
on the field.
Tomlinson said there are
“great character guys” on the team but that a lack of focus by
certain players contributed to the loss to the Jets, a game in
which the Chargers committed numerous costly and
uncharacteristic penalties.
“It makes a difference on how
you react,” Tomlinson said. “Their focus was somewhere other
than where it needed to be — on the field. We talked over and
over about that. We had extra sessions on that as players. And
then we go out and that stuff happens. So what else could it
be?”
He also said there are players
overly concerned about their contracts. A number of Chargers
have been rewarded in past years with multiyear deals, but some
of the team’s stars are without that security.
“That was a big focus,”
Tomlinson said. “A lot of guys got the contracts. Guys see that
other guys got paid and taken care of and they’re like, ‘Why
ain’t nobody talking to me?’ It became a problem.”
Tomlinson said all season that
he was happy, even in a diminished role. He explained Thursday
why he kept his feelings inside until recently.
“There are certain things you
can’t lash out about, especially when you’re winning,” he said.
The Chargers won 11 straight
games to finish the regular season 13-3. Tomlinson reiterated
his shock at the loss to the Jets but said he was concerned the
underlying issue of focus would manifest at some point.
“I didn’t think it would show
itself until we went up against a team like the Colts,” he said,
referring to the AFC champions who are playing in Sunday’s Super
Bowl.
Still, he believes the
Chargers are close to being a championship team.
“It’s just going to take a
little more effort by guys,” he said. “I don’t think we realize
how focused and how determined we’ve got to be if we want to get
to the Super Bowl. … I don’t know what it is — growing up,
dedication.”
Knowing he is not going to be
in San Diego, he said he is speaking out for the good of the
team.
“Hopefully,” Tomlinson said,
“I leave some wisdom to the leaders that are left behind.”